Critical mineral demand places Africa at a crossroads as China and the United States compete fiercely for dominance over its vast mineral wealth.
Sub-Saharan Africa holds roughly 30 per cent of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, including 70 per cent of global cobalt production from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and 60 per cent of manganese from South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana.
Lithium deposits also exist in Zimbabwe, DRC, and Mali, making Africa a critical player in the global energy transition driven by electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies.
China has long been the dominant player in Africa’s critical minerals sector, leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure mining rights through infrastructure-for-minerals deals such as the Sicomines project in the DRC, where Chinese investors hold a 68 per cent stake.
Chinese investment in Africa’s mining sector reached $3.37 billion in 2024, with key targets including South Africa, Mozambique, Niger, Algeria, and Mauritius.
China controls a significant share of mineral refining globally — dominating refining capacity in 19 of 20 strategic minerals — and exports raw materials from Africa, processing them primarily in Chinese facilities.
Cheryl Buss, CEO of Absa International, stated: “China saw Africa as a key resource provider in terms of critical minerals, and its strategy was to secure sites and to develop mining there… 77 per cent of Africa’s resources are exported in a raw material state, offering huge revenue opportunities to China.”
The United States has adopted an increasingly strategic approach to securing critical minerals from Africa, viewing mineral supply not only as an economic but also as a national security imperative alongside reducing dependency on China.
In 2024, the US imported 100 per cent of its supplies of 15 mineral commodities, including graphite and manganese, with China supplying a large share of these.
President Donald Trump’s administration notably brokered peace deals and trilateral agreements with mineral-rich African countries such as the DRC, Rwanda, and Zambia to stabilise supply corridors and develop integrated electric vehicle battery value chains.
Under President Biden, the US has supported infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor railway linking Angola, Zambia, and DRC, launched the Minerals Security Partnership to strengthen supply chains and promote environmental and social governance standards, and expanded domestic mining with the Defence Production Act.
Stephen Blitz of TS Lombard calls the US-Africa mineral strategy “transactional,” aimed at diversifying away from China while securing stable supplies.
For Africa, this geopolitical rivalry poses both an opportunity and a challenge.
Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China Programme at the Stimson Centre, notes: “It is good for Africa that they will have options… However, we know that, historically, African governments are not famous for capitalising on these opportunities well.”
Africa’s ability to attract sustained international investments, support local value addition through beneficiation and manufacturing, and promote equitable benefit-sharing arrangements will be key to turning critical minerals into lasting socioeconomic development.
Cheryl Buss emphasised the need to move beyond raw mineral exports, calling for “the creation of value by adjusting onshore… to stimulate the growth, the development and the sustainability of the communities in these various African countries.”
The African Continental Free Trade Area, launched in 2021, offers a framework to boost intra-African trade and increase regional beneficiation, but full implementation remains ongoing.
Africa’s minerals are at the heart of an intensifying contest between China and the US for global supply chain supremacy in critical minerals essential to the energy transition.
