Global copper demand is projected to surge 24 per cent by 2035, rising by 8.2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) to 42.7 Mtpa, according to a new Horizons report from Wood Mackenzie titled ‘High-wire act: Is soaring copper demand an obstacle to future growth?’.
The research forecasts that growth will be driven by ongoing industrialisation alongside structural demand from electrification and digitalisation.
While the trajectory appears strong, Wood Mackenzie warns that four powerful disruptors could amplify demand and price volatility beyond expectations — together accounting for an additional three Mtpa, or 40 per cent of total copper demand growth, by 2035.
Among these disruptors, data centres are emerging as the most unpredictable variable in copper demand forecasting.
Artificial intelligence alone is set to consume an additional 2,200 terawatt-hours of electricity by 2035, lifting copper demand for grid infrastructure to 1.1 Mtpa by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Power team.
The report noted that because copper represents less than 0.5 per cent of total project costs, data centre developers are largely indifferent to price fluctuations.
Consequently, a surge in construction could trigger price spikes of 15 per cent or more and rapidly deplete inventories.
“Data centres create inelastic demand in the market,” said Peter Schmitz, at Wood Mackenzie.
“When developers require copper for the expansion of data centres, it is used with little concern for the copper price.
“This dynamic in a nascent sector makes data centres an unpredictable and volatile source of demand this decade.”
Beyond AI-driven expansion, the wider energy transition is reshaping copper consumption.
The shift to renewable energy systems is expected to require an additional two Mtpa of copper over the next decade, with total demand from this sector set to climb from 1.7 Mtpa today to 4.3 Mtpa by 2035 — an annual growth rate of 10 per cent.
“Each electric vehicle contains up to four times more copper than a conventional car,” said Schmitz.
“As battery technologies advance, copper demand intensity across charging infrastructure and power systems will remain high.
“By our forecasts, EV-related copper demand is set to double by 2035, cementing the metal’s role at the heart of the global energy transition.”
India and Southeast Asia are emerging as key engines of consumption, with their rapid industrialisation expected to add 3.3 Mtpa of copper demand by 2035.
Based on Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, their construction and power sectors could require an additional 5.4 Mtpa if these economies follow even half of China’s historical trajectory, presenting a major upside for long-term copper demand.
Geopolitical developments are also influencing copper demand. Europe’s decision to raise defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds a modest 25–40 ktpa of direct copper demand over the decade, though wider effects will be felt across infrastructure resilience and modernisation.
“Rising defence budgets are creating a quiet but meaningful source of incremental copper demand,” said Schmitz.
“While the headline numbers for military hardware appear limited, the supporting infrastructure, including hardened power networks and communications, is also copper intensive, adding scale to copper demand for defence through what appears to be normal development.”
To meet accelerating demand, over eight Mtpa of new mining capacity and 3.5 Mtpa of additional scrap will be required by 2035.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that annual mine disruption assumptions may need to rise from 5 per cent to 6 per cent, effectively removing up to 300 kilotonnes from the market each year and tightening supply further.
“Copper has become the strategic bottleneck of the global energy transition,” said Charles Cooper at Wood Mackenzie.
Cooper said the consequences of supply chain strain in the copper market will be tangible worldwide, from Detroit to Shenzhen, as production bottlenecks and delivery lags ripple through economies.
He cautioned that unless governments and investors ramp up support and action, copper could shift from being the cornerstone of electrification to a scarce and strategic commodity.
