Australia’s resource and energy export earnings are forecast to hit a record $310 billion in 2020-21, up almost 7 per cent on the record set in 2019-20, according to the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources’ (DISER) latest Resources and Energy Quarterly.
Almost half of the earnings are expected to come from iron ore alone. After topping the $100 billion mark (for the first time ever for any commodity) in 2019–20, iron ore export earnings are expected to reach a new record of $149 billion in 2020–21.
Prices for iron ore are expected to ease from the second half of 2021, leading to some moderation in earnings over the subsequent two years. Total export value for iron ore is forecast to be $137 billion in 2021–22 and $113 billion in 2022–23.
The report highlights that base metal prices have surged above levels reached just before the COVID-19 pandemic and strong demand from steel producers has seen Australian metallurgical coal prices regain all of the losses incurred as a result of China’s informal import restrictions.
The report further notes that Australia’s gold export earnings for 2020–21 have been revised down to $28 billion – a fall of 3.1 per cent (or $910 million) – from the March 2021 Resources and Energy Quarterly, reflecting a larger than anticipated fall in export volumes to the UK, US and Switzerland in the March quarter 2021.
DISER’s forecasts for Australian gold exports in 2021–22 and 2022–23 have been revised up by 7 per cent (or $1.9 billion) and 6.5 per cent (or $1.7 billion), respectively, from the March 2021 Resources and Energy Quarterly, reflecting an expected rise in exports to China and India.
Australia’s total resources and energy export earnings are forecast to rise to $334 billion in 2021-22, before declining slightly to $304 billion in 2022–23.
The June 2021 Resources and Energy Quarterly can be found here.
