Australia risks forfeiting its position as a global critical minerals powerhouse unless it accelerates project delivery and addresses a severe development lag, according to new analysis by PwC Australia.
Despite a massive national pipeline exceeding 900 critical minerals projects, only 13, just 1.4 per cent, are close to making a final investment decision (FID) within the next two to four years.
The report, titled Securing Australia’s Critical Minerals Future, reveals that of 907 total projects nationwide, 117 form the country’s core investable universe.
However, nearly 90 per cent of these investable projects remain three to six years away from FID, with complex developments taking up to a decade.
PwC Energy, Utilities & Resources Partner Lachy Haynes warned that while global allies are aggressively scrambling to secure supply chains, Australia’s pace of execution is falling behind.
“The world wants what we have, but it will not wait around for us,” Haynes said.
“Having the minerals in the ground is not enough. The gap between the scale of our mineral endowment and production levels is getting harder to ignore.”
Although the federal government has committed AU$28 billion to the sector since 2022, PwC noted that much of this funding is structured as tax incentives or prospective support that only delivers value once production begins, leaving early-stage projects stranded.
To bridge the gap between policy ambitions and real-world investment, PwC proposed a four-point plan.
- Fast-track uncontested projects by establishing a two-track regulatory framework.
- Develop industrial precincts with shared energy, water, and transport infrastructure to lower capital intensity.
- De-risk investments for institutional capital, enabling superannuation funds to back long-term strategic mineral reserves.
- Repurpose existing industrial facilities to rapidly expand domestic processing capability.
Without rapid action, Australia risks losing ground as allied nations seek faster, alternative supply chains elsewhere.
“Australia cannot afford to let the geopolitical window slam shut before it has established itself as a key player in a range of critical mineral value chains,” Haynes said.
