Australia’s resource and energy export earnings are projected to grow to AU$422 billion in fiscal 2026 to 2027, according to the September 2026 Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The latest forecast represents an upward revision of AU$6 billion from the June quarter report, underscoring the sector’s resilience despite volatile international trade conditions and ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
While iron ore remains the nation’s largest export by volume, export revenue across key critical minerals and energy commodities continues to bolster broader economic stability.
Lithium export earnings are expected to rise significantly from AU$10 billion in 2025–26 to AU$17 billion in 2026–27, driven by supply disruptions in China and Zimbabwe alongside sustained battery supply chain demand.
Overall critical minerals exports, including lithium, nickel, and lower-volume rare earths, are forecast to reach AU$26 billion next financial year.
Meanwhile, gold export revenues are projected to average US$4,600 an ounce through 2026, remaining at elevated levels through 2028 despite easing from last year’s AU$70 billion peak. The gold price eased to US$4,000 an ounce in June but has since rebounded.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the resources sector continues to generate crucial earnings that support federal public services and regional employment.
“In tough times for global trade, our resources industry is standing strong and continuing to reliably supply our world class products to the world,” King said.
“That means strong resource export earnings that deliver well paid jobs for workers and support for the Albanese government’s investments in more bulk-billing doctors, fee-free TAFE and support for schools, helping every day Australians doing it tough.”
The report notes that while global supply increases may apply downward pressure on iron ore prices over the medium term, sharp rises in exploration expenditure for both minerals and petroleum signal ongoing commercial confidence in Australia’s resources pipeline.
Combined with lithium and nickel, Australia’s critical minerals exports will grow from AU$25 billion this financial year to AU$26 billion next financial year, before easing to AU$25 billion in 2030–31.
