The global copper industry is entering a pivotal phase — one not only requiring more production, but also smarter, more inclusive and technologically driven growth strategies.
This warning comes as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlights a looming copper shortfall that could stall the world’s transition to clean energy and digital infrastructure.
“Copper is no longer just a commodity — it’s a strategic asset,” said Luz María de la Mora, Director of UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities.
“Its market exposes the power asymmetries that still shape global trade.
“That’s why we need to invest in local value addition, scale up recycling and remove trade barriers that limit opportunity.
“This is a moment where all countries can win — if trade is made to work for development.”
Copper is essential to electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres, and smart grids.
Yet, supply is struggling to keep up. Global demand is set to rise over 40 per cent by 2040, but low ore grades, geopolitical risks, and mine development timelines of up to 25 years pose significant challenges.
Meeting projected needs will require 80 new mines and US$250 billion in investment by 2030.
China dominates the processing of many critical minerals, importing 60 per cent of global copper ore and producing over 45 per cent of refined copper.
Meanwhile, more than half of global copper reserves are concentrated in just five countries: Australia, Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Russian Federation.
However, many resource-rich nations remain limited to exporting raw materials, missing out on value-added opportunities.
Developing countries risk remaining at the bottom of the value chain due to tariff escalation and lack of industrial capacity.
Most major copper exporters also fall below the global average in economic complexity, underscoring the need for investment in infrastructure, skills, and targeted trade policy.
Recycling now supplies nearly one in five tonnes of copper globally.
In 2023, 4.5 million tonnes — about 20 per cent of global refined copper — came from secondary sources.
The United States, Germany, and Japan are among the top scrap exporters, while China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea lead on imports.
For developing countries, building local recycling capacity offers a strategic opportunity to reduce import dependence, lower emissions, and support circular-economy practices.
UNCTAD’s report calls for smarter trade policies, investment, and recycling to close the supply gap.
Streamlined permitting, reduced tariffs, and regional value chains are recommended to help developing countries move up the value chain and share more equitably in the energy and tech transformations.
The report frames copper as a “new strategic raw material” in the green and digital economy and a test case for how global trade systems handle resource pressures under strain.
The report reads: “It’s more than just a metal. It’s in our phones, our homes, our cars — quietly powering our daily lives.
“As demand increases for clean technologies, like solar panels and electric vehicles, copper is increasingly in the spotlight.”
As the world accelerates its shift to clean energy and advanced technologies, the copper industry’s ability to adapt with smarter, more inclusive strategies will be critical to ensuring a sustainable and equitable global transition.
