Gold prices are likely to surge by up to 30 per cent in 2026 from a combination of falling yields, persistent geopolitical risks and slowing economic growth.
Gold delivered a remarkable performance in 2025, setting over 50 all-time highs and edging over 60 per cent by the end of November, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) in its Gold Outlook 2026 report.
The asset’s performance was driven by a combination of factors: heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower interest rates. The environment resulted in investors and central banks increasing their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability.
Looking ahead to 2026, the WGC believes the gold outlook will continue to be shaped by uncertain economic conditions.
“While the current gold price broadly reflects the prevailing macroeconomic consensus and suggests a rangebound performance, our analysis indicates that the forces of softer growth, accommodative policy, and persistent geopolitical risks are more likely to support gold than to undermine it,” according to the WGC.
The WGC forecasts several developments for the gold price to move in 2026. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could see moderate gains.
“The combination of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar paired with heightened risk aversion would create a continued supportive environment for gold.”
In this scenario, gold could rise 5 to 15 per cent in 2026 from current levels.
Meanwhile, if the global economy moves into a deeper and more synchronised slowdown, driven by rising geopolitical and geoeconomic risks, the pronounced flight-to-safety could create strong tailwinds for gold.
Under this scenario, gold could increase 15 to 30 per cent from current levels.
However, the WGC also posits a bearish scenario, where rising yields, a stronger dollar and a shift toward risk-on positioning could weigh heavily on gold. In a bearish scenario, there could be a gold price correction of between 5 to 20 per cent from current levels.
“Despite the plausibility of a bearish scenario, it is likely that investors will maintain some exposure to gold given the unpredictability of current geoeconomic dynamics,” according to the report.