Queensland’s resources industry is producing more while feeling increasingly uncertain about the future, with a new report from the Queensland Resources Council (QRC) revealing a sharp deterioration in CEO sentiment against a backdrop of geopolitical conflict, rising costs and regulatory uncertainty.
The QRC’s latest State of the Sector report, released today, found that volatile global conditions have emerged as the leading concern for resources companies across the state, compounding existing pressures from soaring operating costs and policy settings that industry leaders say are stifling investment, including what the QRC describes as the world’s highest coal royalty rates.
The report’s first-half 2026 CEO Sentiment Survey painted a sobering picture, with 48 per cent of resources CEOs reporting lower confidence in industry growth prospects compared with the previous 12 months. Of those, 19 per cent said they were much less confident.
CEOs singled out the conflict in Iran as a significant disruptor to their businesses, with increased costs the most direct consequence felt across the sector.
The pressure is coming from multiple directions at once, according to survey respondents.
“Geopolitical fragmentation, changing trade rules and higher regulatory intervention are all increasing risk and variability,” one CEO noted in the report.
Another described the cost environment in stark terms: “Cost pressure is coming from every direction, and it’s compounding.
“Diesel remains the most acute concern, but labour, contractors, consumables and specialist services are all rising at the same time.”
QRC Chief Executive Officer Janette Hewson said the findings underscored how deeply global events were affecting Queensland’s resources operators, even as some market indicators improved.
“Queensland’s resources sector is resilient, but it is not immune to sustained pressure as events in the Middle East deepen existing long term industry concerns over policy uncertainty and the damaging impact of the current coal royalty regime,” said Hewson.
“The results reflect the impact of geopolitical conflict, energy market disruption and broader uncertainty across global markets, which are now shaping the operating environment for Queensland projects.”
The report found that even where commodity prices and export volumes have strengthened, cost pressures are preventing companies from converting improved market conditions into sustained or new investment.
Regulatory uncertainty in areas including gas market reforms and taxation is adding to the cautious mood.
The combined effect is a sector pulling back on growth ambitions.
The survey found 62 per cent of CEOs said they were unlikely to expand or had no plans to pursue expansion opportunities in Queensland over the next 12 months.
Hewson said: “With the State Budget approaching, it’s an opportunity for the Queensland government to reset policies and regulations that are holding the resources sector back, including the world’s highest coal royalty rates,” she said.
“Industry has welcomed steps by the Queensland government to improve approval times for new resources projects but more needs to be done to attract new investment to our state.
“That matters for every Queenslander.
“The resources sector contributed $115.2 billion to the Queensland economy last year and supported close to 550,000 jobs.”
The State of the Sector report draws on CEO insights from across Queensland’s coal, gas, metals and minerals industries, providing a forward-looking assessment of the challenges and opportunities facing one of the state’s most economically significant sectors.
