KPMG Australia forecasts a robust year ahead for the nation’s mining and metals sector, with growing opportunities in critical minerals, deal-making and technology.
However, the outlook is tempered by a challenging cost environment and ongoing transitions in energy, trade, and skills.
According to Nick Harridge, KPMG National Leader, Mining & Metals, 2026 will bring a renewed focus on Australia’s energy transition as organisations “work through the complexities of getting to net zero.”
A surge in demand for lithium, nickel, aluminium, cobalt, copper and rare earths continues to reshape global supply chains.
“There’s a broader global canvas now, with markets such as Canada and the US investing in processing and downstream supply chain for delivering these minerals to the world,” Harridge said.
This heightened competition, he noted, positions Australia strongly in the race to supply essential inputs for renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles.
While mining companies advance decarbonisation strategies, Harridge cautioned that progress will take time.
“The larger players have already made significant progress towards net zero, and we note the reporting requirements are now part of the regulatory landscape. However, we predict it will take longer to get there with more steps in the journey.”
He added that electric vehicle fleet conversions and trials of green-powered haul trucks are key signs of change, reflecting the sector’s movement toward cleaner operations.
The international investment environment is also shifting, with US tariffs on commodities expected to influence Australia’s market dynamics.
Yet, Harridge remained optimistic, stating: “We see a more positive landscape in 2026 as mining investment funds flow out of the US into Australia.
“I would say this will be a ‘friends working together’ approach, which will override any tariff tensions and the changing political map in global mining.”
KPMG forecasts a fast-moving technology cycle and a stronger M&A pipeline in 2026.
“The imperative to improve productivity, safety and performance remains a strong incentive to better utilise operational data, and the potential of AI-enabled technologies is offering the best way of utilising the abundant operational data available,” Harridge said.
He also highlighted that investments “will flow from Asian markets, the United States and European investors, as financial and strategic investors take positions in Australian miners”.
Consolidation in the ASX-listed space is expected to continue, alongside increased funding for energy infrastructure.
Christiane Brendel, KPMG Australia Mining and Oil & Gas Advisory Partner, emphasised the critical role mining plays in the national economy.
“Our economy cannot exist without mining, and there is strong demand in the sector from miners looking for specific roles in engineering and technology as well as the adjacent skills to these,” she said.
She called for greater efforts to “amplify the community benefits of mining” to attract new talent.
Globally, Harridge pointed to China’s continued dominance.
“It’s predicted that China will be the biggest economy in the world by 2030 if not sooner,” he said, citing the country’s control of refining more than 70 per cent of cobalt and lithium and 85 per cent of nickel.
“The world will continue to look to Australian miners to deliver the critical minerals needed for the energy transition,” Harridge concluded.
“On the risk side, we would say industry participants will also grapple with the skills gap and the challenges of new technology and decarbonisation needs, as well as investing in the opportunities.”
