Australia’s minerals sector may be on the brink of another resources boom, driven by the nation’s critical minerals endowment and its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. This time, however, the primary market will not be China, as it was during the early 2000s, but neighbouring India.
In a report released by the Pranava Institute in the June quarter, Titiksha Vashist noted that while cooperation over critical minerals has been a key focus in the economic, security, and foreign policy dialogues of both countries, their supply chains remain “highly susceptible” to disruptions from trade restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and international power plays.
Moreover, the global concentration of mineral processing capabilities presents a significant risk, especially as China currently processes 68 per cent of global nickel, 40 per cent of copper, 59 per cent of lithium, and 73 per cent of cobalt.
Another concerning factor is that prices for critical minerals have fallen sharply from their peaks in late 2022 and early 2023 due to slower growth in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and increased raw materials supply. These developments have particularly impacted Australia.
Additionally, the broader context of US-China decoupling, potentially exacerbated under the new Donald Trump-led Republican administration, is likely to affect how middle powers approach critical minerals security.
An emerging consensus among analysts, Vashist noted, suggests that no single country can achieve complete sovereign capacity in this sector. Consequently, bilateral and multilateral efforts to establish scalable, secure, and sustainable mineral supply chains have increased.
Export returns are forecast to remain above historical averages through 2028-29, as a result of sustained industrial demand from key Asian markets, including India, due to its infrastructure and manufacturing push.
“Australia’s large resource endowments and the rising demand from the renewable energy sector position Australia to lead in critical minerals supply, offering significant economic and geopolitical opportunities,” Vashist stated.
“India’s critical mineral needs are expected to peak by2050, coinciding with its peak emissions on the current growth trajectory.
“Clean technologies, including solar, wind, EV batteries, grid storage, and infrastructure, are projected to drive the majority of this demand.
“With mineral requirements on the rise, India is seeking partnerships with trusted nations for minerals for which it has limited or no domestic reserves. “India is an important partner for a major mineral producer like Australia.”
Vashist highlighted that both countries are already collaborating on multiple strategic priorities in the region, including the development of port infrastructure, maritime security, digital connectivity, and development aid, “making critical minerals part of a larger shared strategic convergence”.
Additionally, India’s ‘Make in India’ policy aims to establish the subcontinent as a global manufacturing hub for 25 sectors, for which critical and strategic minerals are essential, including EV, electronics systems, electric machinery, and renewable energy.
Regarding the Australian resources sector’s ESG standards and its commitment to clean technologies, Vashist made several recommendations to assist India in building its corporate social responsibility.
“Social impact measures can be used by Indian companies to create value and offset the impacts of critical mining abroad,”she said.“This is because mining is a complex activity involving the resolution of water, land, and settlement issues, as well as indigenous community rights.“Risk-averse Indian firms will require government support to engage in the critical minerals sector concerning ESG standards and norms.”
Vashist also suggested co-investment in new frontiers of critical minerals research, such as undersea mining, to be achieved through mutual knowledge and capacity building. Experts have indicated the need for collaboration one merging frontiers of critical minerals mining, where both Australia and India can leverage their unique strengths, “and address ecological concerns from the outset”.
Furthermore, the two nations need to establish a critical minerals dialogue involving governments, businesses, and civil society. Moreover, Vashist emphasised that a “granular” analysis of India’s critical minerals demand – particularly in emerging sectors like clean technology, battery manufacturing, electronics, and chemicals – is vital, as it would help Australian stakeholders target high-growth opportunities and align mutual incentives for future collaborations.
“Australia should also position itself as a trusted supplier for India’s growing mineral demands and proactively engage key Indian manufacturers, and infrastructure and technology giants to establish itself as a preferred and trusted supplier,” she explained.
“The two countries should conduct a comprehensive analysis of their comparative advantages in critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements needed for critical sectors like defence, health, and semiconductors.
“This strategic alignment can foster deeper, long-term cooperation in critical minerals that extends beyond economic interests.” Additionally, the two nations should collaborate to unlock economies of scale, especially given India’s large domestic market.
By working together on large mining and processing projects, both nations could benefit from competitive pricing, workforce development, and reduced investment risks. “To enhance bilateral collaboration, a single-window mechanism under the Critical Minerals Mission can be established, simplifying engagement with Indian regulatory bodies,” Vashist stated. “Streamlining approvals and governance processes will ensure timely execution and reduce bureaucratic friction in critical minerals projects.
“Australia’s status as a reliable economic middle power andIndia’s unique position as an emerging leader in the Global South can be leveraged to shape norms in critical minerals global discourse and develop standards and benchmarks for critical minerals markets using existing cooperation mechanisms.”
Indian companies should also be provided access to financing and credit mechanisms to enable them to invest in both domestic and international critical minerals projects.
This tailored financial support would encourage smaller firms to build niche expertise in critical minerals markets, thereby driving innovation and specialisation in both countries. “Governments must intervene to address market volatility by providing economic safety nets, long-term investment incentives, and price modelling,” Vashist added.
“Building on the economic integration facilitated by the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, this will safeguard against price fluctuations and ensure the stability and sustainability of critical minerals supply chains, encouraging greater investment from both public and private sectors.”
Around the same time as Vashist’s report was released, Anindita Sinh from the Centre for Social and Economic Progress published a paper highlighting that, in this era of economic uncertainty, international cooperation has never been more essential.
“The partnership between India and Australia stands as a strategic beacon amid this fragmentation as both countries aim to ensure economic security,” she explained. “Australia, endowed with vast reserves of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, graphite, and gallium, is already a global powerhouse in resource production.”
Meanwhile, India, driven by its clean energy agenda and ambitious industrialisation goals, is rapidly emerging as one of the world’s largest consumers of these essential materials.
In the wake of geopolitical uncertainties, such as supply chain disruptions caused by conflicts and economic sanctions, securing access to critical minerals has become a matter of national security for both nations.
“As countries reduce reliance on dominant suppliers like China, partnerships such as that between India and Australia provide an opportunity to build robust and resilient supply chains,” Sinh noted.
Moreover, India’s partnership with Australia represents its most advanced bilateral cooperation in the critical minerals domain, reflecting a shared commitment to resilient supply chains and clean energy transitions.
“As India seeks to diversify its sources and secure access to strategic resources, geoeconomic developments underscore the
importance of deepening ties not only with established partners like Australia but also with other resource-rich regions,” Sinhstated.
“Australia’s robust policy ecosystem and mature mining sector complement India’s large market, industrial ambitions, and climate goals, making the two natural partners in this space.”
