A massive 87 per cent of small to medium enterprises (SMEs) in Western Australia are forecasting positive enterprise revenue growth in the six months to March 2023, compared to just 15 per cent of SMEs in Victoria.
The ‘boom or bust’ predictions of the two Australian jurisdictions most affected by COVID-related lockdowns are contained in the latest round of the bi-annual SME Growth Index by ScotPac.
Queensland SMEs were the next most upbeat after Western Australia with 77 per cent projecting growth. SME forecasts in NSW were more subdued with 41 per cent of SME forecasting growth and a third predicting no change in revenue.
Across the nation, the following is a snapshot of the sentiment of the 718 SMEs surveyed throughout August 2022:
- 54 per cent of SMEs are expecting positive six month revenue growth to March 2023, the highest recorded figure since September 2019 (pre-pandemic survey)
- The average growth forecast of 7% is the strongest recorded since the very first round of the SME Growth Index in September 2014.
- 27 per cent of SMEs are anticipating a contraction in revenues in the six month period by an average of 7.7 per cent, which represents record low negative growth proportions and average revenue decline figures.
ScotPac CEO Jon Sutton said the wildly fluctuating forecasts highlighted that the Australian economy consists of many different economies within one.
“A lot of West Australian industries are export focused on markets that are proving very resilient, like iron ore and lithium mining to support battery manufacturing.
“Queensland has seen strong demand for its core tourism sector return as domestic and international visitors enjoy travel freedoms for the first summer since 2019.
Internal migration from the southern states has also boosted business confidence.
“By contrast, Victoria is more service industry focused and the road to recovery has been longer. But we are starting to see green shoots with some huge Federal and State Government infrastructure spending commitments that will have positive flow-on effects in industries like construction, labour hire, engineering and equipment and leasing,” Mr Sutton said.