Australia’s resources and energy export earnings remain strong despite the challenging global trade environment, according to the latest government forecasts.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly publication from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources has upgraded forecast export revenue to $405 billion in 2025–26 and $416 billion in 2026–27.
These figures represent increases of $22 billion and $42 billion respectively from the December forecasts.
Export revenue is expected to fall back after 2026–27, dropping to $371 billion in 2030–31, though the sector’s overall outlook remains positive.
The artificial intelligence investment boom, the global energy transition and efforts by many nations to secure supply chains are all expected to generate ongoing demand for Australia’s resources and energy commodities over the five-year outlook period.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the latest forecasts underline the strength and resilience of Australia’s resources and energy sector.
“Australia’s resources and energy sector continues to deliver strong export earnings that support jobs, investment and economic growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty,” said Minister King.
“Export volumes continue to remain strong, underlining Australia’s role as a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy to our export partners and the region.”
Capital expenditure in Australia’s resource and energy sectors continues to rise, reflecting the ongoing strength of Australia’s industry and economy.
Iron ore is expected to remain the dominant force in Australia’s export mix, continuing to account for more than 25 per cent of all resources and energy exports despite easing prices over the outlook period.
Meanwhile, higher gold prices and volumes are forecast to push export earnings for the precious metal to a peak of around $73 billion in 2026–27.
The report also points to strong growth prospects for critical minerals used in clean energy technologies.
Global demand for copper, nickel, aluminium, lithium and steel is likely to increase due to growth in renewable power generation and electrification.
Australian LNG export volumes are also expected to remain strong despite easing global prices over the outlook period.
Notably, the forecasts are based on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from July, a key global trade route whose disruption had raised concerns for international commodity markets.
The report acknowledges, however, that it will take some time for trade through the strait to return to pre-conflict levels.
The figures paint a picture of a sector that continues to underpin significant parts of the Australian economy, providing a buffer against broader global economic headwinds while positioning the country to benefit from long-term structural shifts including electrification and the build-out of AI infrastructure worldwide.
